Orascom Construction (ORAS EY, OC DU): The company’s 3Q22 consolidated net income decreased c16% y-o-y to USD23.9m, according to its audited financials. (Company data)
Our comment: The reported net income comes c24% higher than our estimate of USD19.3m, mainly on c22% higher-than-expected revenue. The company’s backlog decreased c5% y-o-y to USD5.73bn, accounting for the full effect of the EGP devaluation. New awards dropped c30% y-o-y to USD677m, comprised of USD473m new awards in MEA, predominantly in Egypt, in local currency in water infrastructure, BOO warehouse, and real estate development projects, and a small percentage in Saudi Arabia (which constitute a potential for larger projects) and USD204m of new awards in the USA in core data center and commercial projects. BESIX backlog decreased c5% y-o-y to USD5.37bn, and came c9% higher than our estimate, on c77% higher-than-expected new awards of USD1.3bn, c12% lower y-o-y. The breakdown of Besix backlog revealed lower exposure to Europe, UAE, and Africa versus higher exposure to the USA and other MENA countries. Revenue increased c33% y-o-y to USD1.14bn and came c22% higher than our estimate on higher-than-expected executions, with revenue from Egypt rising c18% y-o-y to USD0.69bn (exceeding our estimate by c21%), while revenue from the USA surged c48% y-o-y to USD0.40bn (exceeding our estimate by c34). BESIX revenue rose c4% y-o-y to USD793m and came c10% lower than our estimate. Gross profit rose c21% y-o-y to USD95m and exceeded our estimate by c26%, and gross profit margin dropped c0.8 pp y-o-y to 8.3%, c0.3 pp higher than our estimate of 8.03%. SG&A expenses rose c11% y-o-y to USD51m and came c9% above our estimate. EBITDA surged c25% y-o-y to USD57.2m, exceeding our estimate by c38% on c0.6 pp higher-than-expected EBITDA margin of 5.0%, c0.3 pp lower y-o-y. MENA margin decreased c0.4 pp y-o-y to 6.4%, 0.3 pp higher than our estimate, and the US margin increased 0.3 pp y-o-y to 2.5% and came c1.2 pp higher than our estimate on a good rebound in US margin. EBIT increased c36% y-o-y to USD46m, and came c57% above our estimate, while EBIT margin remained flat y-o-y at 4.0%, c1 pp above our estimate. BESIX reversed course with OC recording a minor loss of USD0.2m from BESIX versus a positive figure of USD6.5m a year earlier, missing our estimate of USD2.7m, which was partially offset by c62% higher-than-expected income from equity accounted investees ex-Besix at USD4.7, c34% higher y-o-y. Net interest expense surged 2.4x y-o-y to USD9.7m, and came c40% above our estimate on lower-than-expected interest income and c12% higher-than-expected interest expense. Net profit dropped c16% y-o-y to USD23.9m and came c24% higher than our estimate, mainly due to the higher-than-expected revenue.
Commercial International Bank (COMI EY): The bank's 3Q22 consolidated net profit increased c16% y-o-y to EGP4.42bn, according to its audited financial statements. (Bank data)
Our comment: The bank reported a good set of results, with its net profit exceeding our estimate of EGP3.73bn by c18%, mainly on c15% lower-than-expected interest expense. Moreover, its balance sheet showed healthy growth, with net loans meeting exactly our estimates while deposits exceeding our estimates. Gross loans increased c21% y-t-d to EGP199bn in 3Q22, c1% above our estimate of EGP197bn, with a real growth of c15% y-t-d (net of EGP devaluation) driven mainly by c28% y-t-d increase in EGP loans. Net loans grew c22% y-t-d to EGP178bn as of September FY22. CIB's holding of financial investments increased c23% y-t-d to EGP264bn as of September FY22, 2.9% relatively above our estimates. Customer deposits rose c23% y-t-d and c16% q-o-q to EGP499bn, exceeding our estimate of EGP442bn by c13%. In real terms, customer deposits increased by only c17% (net of EGP devaluation). Foreign currency deposits increased by c6% y-t-d and c1% q-o-q to USD6.4bn in 3Q22. Net interest income increased c25% y-o-y to EGP8.1bn, c14% above our estimate of EGP7.12bn, mainly due to a c15% lower-than-expected interest expense of EGP6.54bn, which increased c26% y-o-y. The average yield on earning assets came in at 10.7% in 3Q22, 1.00 pp below our estimate of 11.7%, while the average cost of funds dropped 0.05 pp y-o-y to 5.02% in 3Q22, 1.10 pp below our estimate of 6.12%. Accordingly, the bank's net interest margin (NIM) increased 0.31 pp y-o-y to 6.24%, mostly in line with our estimate of 6.14%. Non-interest income declined c24% y-o-y to EGP398m, yet came c7% above our estimate of EGP370m. Provision expenses declined c26% y-o-y to EGP224m, c19% below our estimate of EGP276m. NPLs declined to 4.59% in 3Q22 from 5.70% a year earlier, with a coverage ratio of c216%, compared to 206% in 3Q21 and 209% in 2Q22.
Orascom Development Egypt (ORHD EY): The company’s 4Q22 consolidated net income surged c3.7x y-o-y to EGP377m, its earnings release showed. (Company release)
Our comment: The company reported strong operating numbers, but significant FX losses related to its foreign currency-denominated debt and provisions led to a c53% miss in net income. Revenue grew c67% y-o-y to EGP3.59bn, marking a record high revenue figure for the quarter (c3% lower than our estimate) supported by a c80% y-o-y growth in real estate revenue due to increased construction spending (c10% lower than our estimate). Hospitality revenue grew c43% y-o-y to EGP487m (c29% higher than our estimate), while town management revenue grew c31% y-o-y to EGP443m (c23% higher than our estimate). Gross profit surged 2.3x y-o-y to EGP1.30bn (c21% ahead of our estimate) due to a 10 pp y-o-y wider gross profit margin, which stood at c36% (c7 pp higher than our estimate). SG&A expenses grew c28% y-o-y to EGP72m (c25% lower than our estimate), while investment income grew c34% y-o-y to EGP111m (c28% higher than our estimate), and the company’s share of associate gains grew c41% y-o-y to EGP60m (c2x higher than our estimate). The combined positive effect of these three line items was offset by an EGP458m FX loss and an EGP275m provision charge reported for the quarter. EBIT grew c88% y-o-y to EGP637m (c42% lower than our estimate due to the one-off charges). The company’s net interest expenses grew c88% y-o-y to EGP128m, (c43% lower than our estimate) and led to a pre-tax income growth of c88% y-o-y to EGP509m (c41% lower than our estimate). The effective tax rate was c26% (slightly higher than our 22.5% estimate) and led to a pre-minority income growth of c3.7x y-o-y (c44% lower than our estimate while higher-than-expected minority charges led to a c3.3x y-o-y growth in net income (c53% lower than our estimate). The company previously reported operational KPIs where net contracted sales grew c29% y-o-y to EGP3.83bn. In its earnings release, it revealed that it delivered 533 units during the year (285 units in Gouna and 248 units Makadi), with O West deliveries expected to begin in 1Q23. The company credited its strong sales number to the success of its pricing strategy, with O West witnessing the highest average price increase of c39% y-o-y to EGP43,905/sqm in 4Q22 followed by a c33% y-o-y increase in Gouna to EGP84,353/sqm and c16% y-o-y to EGP36,439/sqm in Makadi. The growth in the hospitality segment was supported by higher occupancies, margins, and room rates, while the company highlighted that foreigners represented c85% of its occupancy in 4Q22.
Palm Hills Developments (PHDC EY): The company’s 4Q22 consolidated net income increased c84% y-o-y to EGP345m, it said in its earnings release. In related news, PHDC’s board proposed withholding dividend distribution for FY22, it announced. (Company release, EGX)
Our comment: The company’s quarterly results were highlighted by (1) better-than-expected sales, driven by a high number of units sold, (2) significant beat in revenue, and (3) a low effective tax rate which contributed to the c15% beat in net income. Revenue surged 2.22x y-o-y to EGP4.04bn and exceeded our estimate by c54% despite a c36% miss in the number of units delivered. Gross profit increased 2.36x y-o-y, and exceeded our estimate by c35%. The lower beat is due to a c4 pp miss in the reported gross profit margin. Gross profit margin widened c2 pp y-o-y to c32% but missed our estimate. SG&A expenses grew c2.65x y-o-y to EGP661m and were c64% higher than our estimate of EGP402m. Net financing expenses surged to EGP197m compared to just EGP18m a year earlier and surpassed our estimate of EGP137m by c44%. Pre-tax income hicked c63% y-o-y to EGP412m and came c6% ahead of our estimate, as the higher-than-expected reported revenue was offset mainly by higher-than-expected SG&A expenses and the interest expense. The effective tax rate was only c10% which widened the pre-minority income beat to c23% as pre-minority income stood at EGP370m, higher c83% y-o-y. Minority charges of EGP25m narrowed the net income beat to c15% as net income grew c83% y-o-y to EGP345m. New sales in 4Q22 increased c92% y-o-y to EGP8.48bn, marking a record quarter for the company. The quarter alone contributed c33% of the year’s EGP26.0bn new sales. The c19% beat to our estimate was volume-driven. PHDC sold 1,119 units, c26% higher y-o-y and c50% higher than our estimate. The average value per unit sold increased c52% y-o-y to EGP7.58m while we had forecasted a more aggressive price increase. Commercial sales were negligible at only EGP510m (c6% of the quarter’s sales). Badya contributed the most to the quarter’s sales at EGP1.90bn (22% of the quarter’s sales), followed by PHNC (c17% of the quarter’s sales). The average price per unit in Badya and PHNC reached EGP5.37m and EGP10.9m, respectively. Sales by region were dominated by West Cairo as sales beat our estimate by c60%, reaching EGP5.16bn, c80% higher y-o-y. Sales in New Cairo were largely in line with our estimate, and grew c2x y-o-y to EGP1.86bn, while sales in North Coast and Alexandria missed our estimate by c26% despite growing 2.23x y-o-y to EGP1.46bn. CAPEX spending grew c67% y-o-y to EGP1.20bn, and beat our estimate by c20%. Despite the better-than-expected spending, deliveries missed our estimate by c36%. The spending reflected on the company’s ready-to-move inventory, which increased to EGP3.90bn. PHDC’s 4Q22 backlog stood at EGP24.0bn and its net debt-equity (including land liabilities) dropped to 0.46x, from 0.50x in 4Q21, but higher than our estimate of 0.27x.
Egypt’s banking sector net foreign liabilities (NFL), including the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE), widened to USD21.6bn in January 2023 from USD20.0bn in December 2022, according to CBE data. Excluding the CBE, the banking sector's NFL widened to USD13.0bn from USD11.7bn in December 2022, the data showed. (CBE)
Our comment: The widening of the banking sector’s NFL by USD1.30bn, excluding the CBE, may be related to the customs release of goods from Egyptian ports that occurred in January and the potential partial repayment of Egypt’s foreign debt, in our view.
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B Investments Holding (BINV EY): The company’s FY22 standalone net profit hiked 6.97x y-o-y to EGP861m mainly due to some EGP913m of dividend income from Inergia Technologies, resulting from the exit of Giza Systems and some EGP74.5m of FX gain, according to its earnings release. The company’s board is proposing a DPS of EGP4.00 for FY22 subject to shareholder approval at the company’s 20 March AGM, and a DPS EGP1.00 for 1Q23 and a 1:4 stock dividend subject to shareholder approval at an AGM that will be convened post the release of 1Q23 financials (Company release)
Our comment: This is positive news for BINV EY shareholders. The DPS of EGP5.00 for FY22 and 1Q23 offer a net-of-tax dividend yield of 23.8% based on Thursday’s trading price of EGP19.96/share and comes higher than our DPS estimate of EGP4.42. The FY22 DPS of EGP4.00 alone offers a net-of-tax dividend yield of 19.0%.
Egypt's passenger car (PC) sales declined c80% y-o-y to 3,429 cars in January 2023, compared to a decline of c75% y-o-y to 5,524 cars in the previous month, according to a report by the Automotive Marketing Information Council (AMIC). Bus sales dropped c39% y-o-y to 810 buses, compared to a decline of c49% y-o-y to 1,355 buses in the previous month, according to the report. (AMIC)
Our Comment: Local PC sales dropped for the eleventh consecutive month, likely impacted by the import and FX constraints and the EGP devaluation. Initial numbers from the AMIC report point to total GB Corp (AUTO EY) sales of 762 cars in January, a c79% y-o-y drop. This implies that GB Corp's total market share during January was 22.2%, 1.14 pp higher than a year earlier. Hyundai sales fell by c96% y-o-y to 70 cars during January. Chery's sales decreased c60% y-o-y to 664 cars. The company did not sell any Mazda cars in January or in December. Also, GB Corp sold some 18 cars of its new brand Changan in January, compared to 103 cars a year earlier.
Arabian Cement (ARCC EY): The company’s 4Q22 consolidated net income increased c69% y-o-y to EGP96.7m, according to its audited financials. The company’s board proposed withholding dividends for 4Q22, it said in a release. (EGX)
Our comment: The company delivered a solid operational performance in 4Q22 that was in line with our estimates, while net income missed our estimate mainly on higher-than-expected FX losses and provisions, which we did not account for in our numbers. Standalone revenue increased c57% y-o-y to EGP1.22bn, only 0.8% above our estimate, on c11% y-o-y higher volumes at 1.03m tons and c41% y-o-y higher revenue per ton at EGP1,178 with volume and prices coming in line with our estimates. Production cash cost per ton increased c28% y-o-y to EGP815 and came only c1% below our estimate. The company contained an increase in the cash cost per ton due to using a lower-cost inventory of raw materials. Consolidated revenue surged c54% y-o-y to EGP1.24bn and came only 0.9% above our estimate. Consolidated gross profit hiked c2.8x y-o-y to EGP298m and came only 1% above our estimate. Gross profit margin expanded 11 pp y-o-y to 24% and was exactly in line with our estimate. SG&A expense (excluding depreciation) increased c8% y-o-y to EGP24.3m and came c36% below our estimate, filtering through a c6% higher-than-expected EBITDA of EGP338m (which we adjusted by excluding some EGP24.7m of insurance compensation that the company received for the stoppage of production line number one), c97% higher y-o-y. This translated into a c6pp y-o-y expansion in EBITDA margin to 27%, 1 pp higher than our estimate. Financing income hiked to EGP7.26m from EGP0.31 a year earlier and came 4.42x higher than our estimate, while financing costs increased c4% y-o-y and came c7% lower than our estimate. ARCC received some EGP24.7m in 4Q22 of insurance compensation for the stoppage of production line number one, recorded EGP20.5m in provisions, and booked EGP110m in FX losses, which we did not account for in our numbers, translating into c2x y-o-y hike in pre-tax income to EGP160m, c33% lower than our estimate. The miss widened to c48% at the net income level due to a higher-than-expected effective tax rate of c39% versus our estimate of 22.5%, with net income reaching EGP97m, c69% higher y-o-y. The company withheld dividends for 4Q22, in line with our estimate, as it has already distributed a DPS of 0.66 for 9M22.
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By Mariam El Saadany/ Thursday, February 19, 2023
Talaat Moustafa Group Holding (TMGH EY): The company's 4Q22 pre-minority income hiked 3.3x y-o-y to EGP265m, its KPIs showed. The board proposed an FY22 DPS of EGP0.19, subject to shareholder approval at its upcoming 20 March AGM, which will be paid over two equal installments of EGP0.096 each, with the first installment to be paid by 31 May at the latest and the second to be paid by 31 July at the latest, it added. The board also approved a budgeted FY23 sales figure of around EGP32.0bn. (EGX)
Our comment: The reported pre-minority income comes c16% lower than our estimate of EGP315m despite revenue beating our estimate by c34%. Revenue grew c48% y-o-y to EGP5.96bn. Gross profit grew c50% y-o-y to EGP1.90bn, c35% ahead of our estimate, as the reported gross profit margin was in line with our estimate of c32%. More to follow as the company’s financials become available. The proposed DPS of EGP0.19 is higher than our estimate of EGP0.17 and yields a net-of-tax yield of 1.82% based on Thursday’s trading price.
Egypt’s annual headline inflation accelerated to 21.3% y-o-y in December from 18.7% y-o-y in the previous month, according to data posted by the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS). Monthly prices rose 2.1% m-o-m compared to an increase of 2.3% m-o-m in November, the data showed. (CAPMAS)
Our comment: The December inflation comes higher than our estimate of 0.2% m-o-m and 19.1% y-o-y, which brings the average inflation rate for 2022 to 13.8% y-o-y, up from 5.21% y-o-y in 2021. The 2.6% m-o-m increase came mainly from a hike in food and beverage prices, mainly poultry, dairy products, and fruits, due to the EGP devaluation and the effect of the shortage in animal feed on poultry supply and prices.
By Heba Monir / Sunday, 9 January, 2023
State-owned Banque Misr and the National Bank of Egypt (NBE) issued today a one-year certificate of deposit (CD) offering an interest rate of 25% paid annually and a one-year CD offering an interest rate of 22.5% paid monthly, the banks announced. (Hapi Journal)
Our comment: Based on our inflation expectation of 15.4% for 2023, we estimate the 25.0% CDs will offer a positive real return of 9.57%. The new CDs will increase the attractiveness of the EGP as a saving instrument, reduce dollarization, and relatively contain inflationary pressures. However, it will compete with the stock market as an alternative investment, and already the EGX30 and EGX100 reacted negatively to the news during today’s trading session. Today’s development came after the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) allowed importation again through documentary collections, effective January, which coincided with the start of daily volatility in the exchange rate, as mentioned by the IMF, leaving the EGP/USD rate at EGP25.06/USD today from EGP24.76/USD on 30 December 2022. We are also expecting the 22 December 300 bps increase in the policy rates to partially reflect on treasury yields gradually, and since the rate hike, the 3-month T-bills average yield increased by 26 bps, the 6-month T-bills by 47 bps, the 9-month T-bills by 25 bps, and the 12-month T-bills by 9 bps.
The World Bank Group Board of Executive Directors yesterday approved a new Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Egypt, laying out the World Bank Group's strategy in the country for FY2023–2027 which will be supported through a financial envelope of USD7bn in lending (USD1bn per year from IBRD and about USD2bn during the entire CPF period from IFC), in addition to guarantees from the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), the World Bank announced in a release. The new CPF aligns with the Egyptian government's Sustainable Development Strategy (SDS), Egypt Vision 2030, and the National Climate Change Strategy (NCCS) 2050, it added. The CPF will be implemented jointly by the World Bank, the International Finance Corporation (IFC), and the MIGA, building on the three institutions’ current portfolios and adopting a flexible approach to lending. The CPF seeks to accomplish its objectives by achieving three high-level outcomes: (1) more and better private sector jobs: through supporting the creation of an empowering environment for private sector-led investments and job opportunities as well as creating a level playing field for the private sector, (2) enhanced human capital outcomes: through supporting the provision of inclusive, equitable and improved health and education services as well as effective social protection programs, and (3) improved resilience to shocks: through strengthened macroeconomic management, and climate change adaptation and mitigation measures. The CPF also intends to strengthen Egypt’s role in regional integration, which has positive implications for Egypt and potentially the broader region through enhanced regional trade and greater connectivity in infrastructure, transport, energy, and labor. Through the CPF the World Bank Group will also continue to support Egypt’s ambitions to lead the climate mitigation and adaptation agenda in the region, following the presidency of COP27. Additionally, the CPF aims to integrate two cross-cutting themes—governance and citizen engagement, and women’s empowerment— across programs. (World Bank)
Egypt’s Suez Canal recorded revenue of USD2.79bn in 1Q23 compared to USD1.69bn in 1Q22, according to the Suez Canal Authority (SCA). (Bloomberg, HC)